Sam-Lillo-20170915 (1).png

Samuel Lillo

Ph.D. Candidate
Graduate Assistant
Meteorologist

 

Email:

splillo@gmail.com 

 

Office:

NWC 5340

120 David L Boren Blvd,

Norman, OK 73072

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Hello! I'm Sam.

 

I am currently a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Oklahoma. I work with Dr. David Parsons on several topics under the umbrellas of Rossby waves, upscale error growth in numerical weather prediction, and sub-seasonal forecasting.

Upscale error growth and propagation in NWP

While skill in the 6-10 day range is improving, we still get "busted" forecasts, and often they coincide with high impact weather. Can we anticipate and mitigate these bad forecasts?

RESEARCH
 
PUBLICATIONS

Parsons, D.B., S.P. Lillo, C. Rattray, P. Bechtold, M.J. Rodwell, C.M. Bruce, 2019. The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems. Atmosphere

http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110681.

Lillo, S.P., D.B. Parsons, and M. Peña, 2019. Dynamics behind a record-breaking trough over Mexico and internal atmospheric variability during El Niño. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 

https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0331.1.

Lillo, S.P. and D.B. Parsons, 2017. Investigating the dynamics of error growth in ECMWF medium‐range forecast busts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(704), pp.1211-1226. 

https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2938.

Carbin, G.W., M.K. Tippett, S.P. Lillo, and H.E. Brooks, 2016. Visualizing long-range severe thunderstorm environment guidance from CFSv2. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(6), pp.1021-1031. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00136.1.

PRESENTATIONS

Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2017: The role of anomalous wave activity in high-impact weather events during the 2015-16 winter. Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Norman, OK.

Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2017: Growth and propagation of synoptic-scale forecast error in NWP forecast busts. 18th Cyclone Workshop, Sainte Adele, QC.

Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2016: Impacts of anomalous mid-latitude wave activity during a strong El Niño. ESRL Physical Sciences Division Seminars, Boulder, CO.

Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2015: Evaluating the Limits of Predictability in the ECMWF. 17th Cyclone Workshop, Pacific Grove, CA.

Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2015: Evaluating the Limits of Predictability in the ECMWF. 23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Met. Soc. Chicago, IL.

Lillo, S.P., 2013: Defining a New Framework for Monitoring the QBO. 3rd International Symposium on Earth-Science Challenges, Kyoto, Japan.

Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2013: Investigating the Dynamics of Error Growth in ECMWF Forecast Busts. 3rd International Symposium on Earth-Science Challenges, Kyoto, Japan.

Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2013: Investigating the Dynamics of Error Growth in ECMWF Forecast Busts. 16th Cyclone Workshop, Sainte Adele, Quebec.

Lillo, S.P., 2013: Synoptic Patterns Supporting High Wind Events in Anchorage, AK. 12th AMS Student Conference, Amer. Met. Soc., Austin, TX.

Lillo, S.P., 2012: Downstream Effects of West Pacific Bombs. 37th Northeast Storm Conference. Rutland, VT.

Lillo, S.P. and Aviles, L.B., 2012: Investigating the Synoptic Pattern leading to the Great Hurricane of 1938. 37th Northeast Storm Conference. Rutland, VT.

Lillo, S.P. and Mansell, E.R., 2012: Sensitivity of Microphysics on the Evolution of a Supercell. 11th AMS Student Conference, Amer. Met. Soc., New Orleans, LA.

PROFESSIONAL PREPARATION
 

EDUCATION

UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA

Forecast Evaluation and Decision Analysis

Climate Dynamics

Advanced Statistical Meteorology

2015-2019

Ph.D. Candidate

UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA

Advanced Atmospheric Dynamics

Convective Clouds and Storms

Partial Differential Equations

Advanced Synoptic Meteorology

Atmospheric Radiation

Advanced Topics in Data Assimilation

Cloud and Precipitation Physics

PLYMOUTH STATE UNIVERSITY

Summa Cum Laude

Major: Meteorology

Minor: Mathematics

2012-2014

Master's Degree

2009-2012

Bachelor's Degree

2015-2019

Graduate Assistant, Ph.D.

UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA

Rossby wave triggering in NWP | Diagnostics on error growth, especially in situations of high impact events | High impact events on a subseasonal to seasonal basis.

RESEARCH

2014

Research Meteorologist

2012-2014

Graduate Assistant, M.S.

2012

Hollings Scholar

2012

Undergraduate Assistant

2011

REU Student Researcher

PLANALYTICS

Developed tools for long range prediction and taught the forecast team how to implement them.

UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA

Evolution of error growth in ECMWF medium-range busts.

NWS ANCHORAGE, AK

Used machine learning to forecast the magnitude of high wind events in Anchorage, AK.

PLYMOUTH STATE UNIVERSITY

Synoptic pattern leading to the Great Hurricane of 1938 | 
West Pacific extratropical bombs, and downstream effects.

NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY

Sensitivity of microphysical parameters in a storm scale model on the motion, intensity, and characteristics of a supercell.

Fall 2018

Grader/Lecturer​

DYNAMICS III

Quasi-geostrophic theory and application, extra-tropical disturbances and baroclinic instability, fronts, jets, predictability, ensemble prediction and data assimilation.

TEACHING

Spring 2017

Lecturer​

Fall 2016

Grader/Lecturer

Summer 2016

Lecturer & Grader​

Fall 2015

Grader/Lecturer​

Fall 2012

Grader

DYNAMICS II

Streamlines and trajectories, thermal wind, vertical motion, pressure tendency, circulation and vorticity, potential vorticity, wave equations, Rossby waves, boundary layer.

DYNAMICS III

(see above)

DYNAMICS II

(see above)

SYNOPTIC LAB

Hand analysis​ of synoptic maps, applications of QG, applications of potential vorticity, weather briefings, applications of programming, synoptic-scale research.

DYNAMICS III

(see above)

2014

Research Meteorologist

PLANALYTICS

Producing operational forecasts for North America, Europe, and the tropics. Briefing the client services team, and clients directly.

FORECASTING / CONSULTING / COMMUNICATION

2010-2012

Engineering Aide / Forecaster

NH DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

Developed a detailed forecasting process for use at the NH DOT. Gave lectures to NH DOT personnel.

Produced winter weather forecasts for the Transportation Management Center staff: Every 12 hours starting with a 3-day lead, provided detailed forecasts by traffic district, with nowcasts as warranted.

MASSACHUSETTS OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

Contributed to a memo for FEMA regarding the unprecedented series of snow storms that hit Boston in January 2015.

Declaration Appeal

Supplemental Info

NSF StEER

Figure included in report for Hurricane Dorian 2019: Through spatiotemporal interpolation of reconnaissance data, generated maps depicting surface wind duration swaths.

StEER : HURRICANE DORIAN PRELIMINARY VIRTUAL RECONNAISSANCE REPORT (PVRR)

2015-2019

Consultant

2017-2019

Reviewer

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

SERVICE / OUTREACH / MEMBERSHIPS

2015-2019

Reveiwer

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

2011-2019

Member

American Meteorological Society

2018

Tutor

School of Meteorology Help Desk

2016-2019

Member

IN THE MEDIA
 

- 2019 -

Shepherd, M, 2019: "Former NOAA Leadership Weighs In On The Agency’s Rebuke Of A National Weather Service Office." Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/09/07/former-noaa-leadership-weighs-in-on-the-agencys-rebuke-of-a-national-weather-service-office/

Shepherd, M, 2019: "Why The Track Forecast For Hurricane Dorian Has Been So Challenging." Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/09/01/why-the-track-forecast-for-hurricane-dorian-has-been-so-challenging/

Denwalt, D, 2019: "Massive weather fronts rain havoc on state in May."

The Oklahoman, https://oklahoman.com/article/5632886/massive-weather-fronts-rain-havoc-on-state-in-may

Erdman, J, 2019: "Stretch of Tornadoes, Severe Weather Since Late April One of Most Prolific in 8 Years." The Weather Channel, https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2019-05-28-severe-weather-tornado-streak-may-2019

Livingston, I, 2019: "Montana just endured one of the nation’s most exceptional cold spells on record." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/03/11/some-nations-most-exceptional-cold-record-has-finally-left-montana/

Samenow, J, 2019: "Polar vortex intrusion: ‘Dangerous’ and ‘brutal’ cold aimed at Great Lakes by Tuesday." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/26/polar-vortex-intrusion-dangerous-brutal-cold-aimed-great-lakes-by-tuesday/

- 2018 -

Dolce, C, 2018: "U.S. Likely to Finish 2018 With Its Fewest Severe Weather Watches in More Than a Decade." The Weather Channel, https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2018-11-29-severe-thunderstorm-tornado-watches-11-year-low-2018

Samenow, J, 2018: "Hurricane Michael forecast updates: Historic storm to arrive in Carolinas by morning, and may unleash flooding rainfall." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/10/hurricane-michael-could-become-strongest-record-strike-florida-panhandle-wednesday/

Shepherd, M, 2018: "3 Reasons Meteorologists Are Talking About Hurricane Florence." Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/09/06/3-reasons-meteorologists-are-talking-about-hurricane-florence/


Lam, L, 2018: "Based on Hurricane Florence's Location, We Didn't Expect It to Get So Strong So Soon." The Weather Channel, https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-06-hurricane-florence-rapid-intensification-rare-major-hurricane/

Kaufman, M, 2018: "How Hurricane Florence overcame big odds to target the East Coast." Mashable, https://mashable.com/article/hurricane-florence-improbable-storm/

Ricci, K, 2018: "Florence Is Poised To Become The East Coast’s Strongest Hurricane In Decades." UPROXX, https://uproxx.com/news/hurricane-florence-east-coast/

Porter, G, 2018: "Florence forecast to become ‘dangerous’ hurricane; chance of East Coast landfall is increasing." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/09/08/florence-likely-to-become-a-major-hurricane-with-increasing-chance-of-u-s-east-coast-landfall/

Lam, L, 2018: "Only 63 Tornado Watches Have Been Issued So Far in 2018, the Fewest in More Than 12 Years." The Weather Channel, https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-07-10-fewest-tornado-watches-2018-last-10-years/

Shepherd, M, 2018: "How Rare Are May Hurricanes? Is There One Brewing For Memorial Day Weekend?" Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/05/22/how-rare-are-may-hurricanes-is-one-brewing-for-memorial-day-weekend/

Freedman, A, 2018: "'Bomb cyclone' ingredients: Sharp temperature contrasts plus jet stream energy." Mashable, https://mashable.com/2018/01/04/how-bomb-cyclone-intensified-so-quickly/

Samenow, J, 2018: "Historic 'bomb cyclone' unleashes blizzard conditions from coastal Virginia to New England. Frigid air to follow." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/04/historic-bomb-cyclone-unleashes-blizzard-conditions-from-coastal-virginia-to-new-england-frigid-air-to-follow/

- 2017 -

Willingham, AJ and Miller, B, 2017: "For Ophelia, the 'what' isn't remarkable, it's the 'where'." CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/16/world/ophelia-ireland-uk-photos-videos-trnd/

Samenow, J, 2017: "Former Hurricane Ophelia rocks Ireland with 100-mph wind gusts." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/10/16/former-hurricane-ophelia-rocks-ireland-with-100-mph-wind-gusts/

Samenow, J, 2017: "Ireland lashed by remnants of Ophelia, the strongest eastern Atlantic hurricane on record." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/10/15/ophelia-strongest-eastern-atlantic-hurricane-on-record-roars-toward-ireland/

Miller, B, 2017: "New tropical depression poses weekend threat to Gulf Coast." CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/04/us/possible-tropical-storm-nate/

Samenow, J, 2017: "Forecasts for Harvey were excellent but show where predictions can improve." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/28/forecasts-for-harvey-were-excellent-but-show-where-predictions-can-improve/

Thompson, A, 2017: "These Tweets Show Just How Nuts Harvey's Rains and Floods Are."

Live Science, https://www.livescience.com/60251-tweets-show-how-crazy-harvey-floods-are.html

Cappucci, M, 2017: "September is the most energetic month for hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/26/september-is-the-most-energetic-month-for-hurricanes-ever-recorded-in-the-atlantic/

- 2016 -

Samenow, J, 2016: "Claim that jet stream crossing equator is ‘climate emergency’ is utter nonsense." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/30/claim-that-jet-stream-crossing-equator-is-climate-emergency-is-utter-nonsense/

- 2015 -

Holthaus, E, 2015: "Boston’s astounding month of snow a 1-in-26,315 year occurrence." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/25/bostons-astounding-month-of-snow-a-1-in-26315-year-occurrence/

Fisher, E, 2015: "Finishing Out The Coldest Month Ever Recorded in New England." CBS Boston,  https://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/24/finishing-out-the-coldest-month-ever-recorded-in-new-england/