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Samuel Lillo
Software Engineer
DTN Forecast Team
Email:
Location:
Boulder, Colorado
Hello! I'm Sam.
I am a software engineer for the DTN Forecast Team.
I received my Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Oklahoma, where I worked with Dr. David Parsons on several topics under the umbrellas of Rossby waves, upscale error growth in numerical weather prediction, and sub-seasonal forecasting.
Upscale error growth and propagation in NWP
While skill in the 6-10 day range is improving, we still get "busted" forecasts, and often they coincide with high impact weather. Can we anticipate and mitigate these bad forecasts?
RESEARCH
PUBLICATIONS
Albers, J.R., et al., in preparation: Are extreme winter weather events predictable on subseasonal timescales? Insights from the February 2021 cold air outbreak over the central U.S. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Lillo, S.P., and D.B. Parsons, in preparation: Modes of synoptic to planetary mid-latitude error growth and propagation in global NWP.
Lillo, S.P., S.M. Cavallo, D.B. Parsons, C. Riedel, 2021: The Role of a Tropopause Polar Vortex in the Generation of the January 2019 Extreme Arctic Outbreak. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 78, 2801–2821, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0285.1.
Butler, A.H., Z.D. Lawrence, S.H. Lee, S.P. Lillo, and C.S. Long, 2020: Differences between the 2018 and 2019 stratospheric polar vortex split events. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3858.
Parsons, D.B., S.P. Lillo, C. Rattray, P. Bechtold, M.J. Rodwell, C.M. Bruce, 2019. The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems. Atmosphere.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110681.
Lillo, S.P., D.B. Parsons, and M. Peña, 2019. Dynamics behind a record-breaking trough over Mexico and internal atmospheric variability during El Niño. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0331.1.
Lillo, S.P. and D.B. Parsons, 2017. Investigating the dynamics of error growth in ECMWF medium‐range forecast busts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(704), pp.1211-1226.
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2938.
Carbin, G.W., M.K. Tippett, S.P. Lillo, and H.E. Brooks, 2016. Visualizing long-range severe thunderstorm environment guidance from CFSv2. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(6), pp.1021-1031. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00136.1.
PRESENTATIONS
Lillo, S.P., Albers, J.R., Newman, M., 2022: How long of a hindcast period is needed for robust bias correction? 102nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Virtual.
Lillo, S.P., Newman, M., Albers, J.R., 2021: The Effect of Soil Moisture in an Empirical Dynamical Model on Weeks 3-4 Temperature Forecasts Over North America. Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Virtual.
Burg, T. and Lillo, S.P., 2021: Tropycal: A Python Package for Analyzing Tropical Cyclones and More. 34th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Virtual.
Lillo, S.P., Albers, J.R., Newman, M., 2021: Predictability and Skill of an Operational Empirical–Dynamical Model for Weeks 3–4 Northern Hemisphere Forecasts. 101st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Virtual.
Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2020: Modes of Synoptic-Scale Midlatitude Error Growth and Ramifications in Medium-Range Forecast Performance. 100th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Boston, MA.
Lillo, S.P., Cavallo, S.M., Parsons, D.B., Riedel C., 2020: The role of a tropopause polar vortex in the January 2019 Arctic outbreak. 100th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Boston, MA.
Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2017: The role of anomalous wave activity in high-impact weather events during the 2015-16 winter. Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Norman, OK.
Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2017: Growth and propagation of synoptic-scale forecast error in NWP forecast busts. 18th Cyclone Workshop, Sainte Adele, QC.
Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2016: Impacts of anomalous mid-latitude wave activity during a strong El Niño. ESRL Physical Sciences Division Seminars, Boulder, CO.
Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2015: Evaluating the Limits of Predictability in the ECMWF. 17th Cyclone Workshop, Pacific Grove, CA.
Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2015: Evaluating the Limits of Predictability in the ECMWF. 23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Met. Soc. Chicago, IL.
Lillo, S.P., 2013: Defining a New Framework for Monitoring the QBO. 3rd International Symposium on Earth-Science Challenges, Kyoto, Japan.
Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2013: Investigating the Dynamics of Error Growth in ECMWF Forecast Busts. 3rd International Symposium on Earth-Science Challenges, Kyoto, Japan.
Lillo, S.P. and Parsons, D.B., 2013: Investigating the Dynamics of Error Growth in ECMWF Forecast Busts. 16th Cyclone Workshop, Sainte Adele, Quebec.
Lillo, S.P., 2013: Synoptic Patterns Supporting High Wind Events in Anchorage, AK. 12th AMS Student Conference, Amer. Met. Soc., Austin, TX.
Lillo, S.P., 2012: Downstream Effects of West Pacific Bombs. 37th Northeast Storm Conference. Rutland, VT.
Lillo, S.P. and Aviles, L.B., 2012: Investigating the Synoptic Pattern leading to the Great Hurricane of 1938. 37th Northeast Storm Conference. Rutland, VT.
Lillo, S.P. and Mansell, E.R., 2012: Sensitivity of Microphysics on the Evolution of a Supercell. 11th AMS Student Conference, Amer. Met. Soc., New Orleans, LA.
PROFESSIONAL PREPARATION
EDUCATION
2015-2021
Ph.D. Degree
UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA
Forecast Evaluation and Decision Analysis
Climate Dynamics
Advanced Statistical Meteorology
UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA
Advanced Atmospheric Dynamics
Convective Clouds and Storms
Partial Differential Equations
Advanced Synoptic Meteorology
Atmospheric Radiation
Advanced Topics in Data Assimilation
Cloud and Precipitation Physics
PLYMOUTH STATE UNIVERSITY
Summa Cum Laude
Major: Meteorology
Minor: Mathematics
2012-2014
Master's Degree
2009-2012
Bachelor's Degree
RESEARCH
2015-2021
Graduate Assistant, Ph.D.
2014
Research Meteorologist
UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA
Rossby wave triggering in NWP | Diagnostics on error growth, especially in situations of high impact events | High impact events on a subseasonal to seasonal basis.
PLANALYTICS
Developed tools for long range prediction and taught the forecast team how to implement them.
2012-2014
Graduate Assistant, M.S.
UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA
Evolution of error growth in ECMWF medium-range busts.
2012
Hollings Scholar
2012
Undergraduate Assistant
NWS ANCHORAGE, AK
Used machine learning to forecast the magnitude of high wind events in Anchorage, AK.
PLYMOUTH STATE UNIVERSITY
Synoptic pattern leading to the Great Hurricane of 1938 |
West Pacific extratropical bombs, and downstream effects.
2011
REU Student Researcher
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
Sensitivity of microphysical parameters in a storm scale model on the motion, intensity, and characteristics of a supercell.
TEACHING
Fall 2018
Grader/Lecturer
DYNAMICS III
Quasi-geostrophic theory and application, extra-tropical disturbances and baroclinic instability, fronts, jets, predictability, ensemble prediction and data assimilation.
Spring 2017
Lecturer
DYNAMICS II
Streamlines and trajectories, thermal wind, vertical motion, pressure tendency, circulation and vorticity, potential vorticity, wave equations, Rossby waves, boundary layer.
Fall 2016
Grader/Lecturer
DYNAMICS III
(see above)
Summer 2016
Lecturer & Grader
Fall 2015
Grader/Lecturer
DYNAMICS II
(see above)
DYNAMICS III
(see above)
Fall 2012
Grader
SYNOPTIC LAB
Hand analysis of synoptic maps, applications of QG, applications of potential vorticity, weather briefings, applications of programming, synoptic-scale research.
FORECASTING / CONSULTING / COMMUNICATION
2014
Research Meteorologist
PLANALYTICS
Producing operational forecasts for North America, Europe, and the tropics. Briefing the client services team, and clients directly.
2010-2012
Engineering Aide / Forecaster
NH DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
Developed a detailed forecasting process for use at the NH DOT. Gave lectures to NH DOT personnel.
Produced winter weather forecasts for the Transportation Management Center staff: Every 12 hours starting with a 3-day lead, provided detailed forecasts by traffic district, with nowcasts as warranted.
MASSACHUSETTS OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
Contributed to a memo for FEMA regarding the unprecedented series of snow storms that hit Boston in January 2015.
Declaration Appeal
Supplemental Info
NSF StEER
Figure included in report for Hurricane Dorian 2019: Through spatiotemporal interpolation of reconnaissance data, generated maps depicting surface wind duration swaths.
StEER : HURRICANE DORIAN PRELIMINARY VIRTUAL RECONNAISSANCE REPORT (PVRR)
2015-2019
Consultant
SERVICE / OUTREACH / MEMBERSHIPS
2017-2019
Reviewer
2016-2019
Member
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
2015-2019
Reveiwer
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
2011-2019
Member
American Meteorological Society
2018
Tutor
School of Meteorology Help Desk
IN THE MEDIA
- 2019 -
Shepherd, M, 2019: "Former NOAA Leadership Weighs In On The Agency’s Rebuke Of A National Weather Service Office." Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/09/07/former-noaa-leadership-weighs-in-on-the-agencys-rebuke-of-a-national-weather-service-office/
Shepherd, M, 2019: "Why The Track Forecast For Hurricane Dorian Has Been So Challenging." Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/09/01/why-the-track-forecast-for-hurricane-dorian-has-been-so-challenging/
Denwalt, D, 2019: "Massive weather fronts rain havoc on state in May."
The Oklahoman, https://oklahoman.com/article/5632886/massive-weather-fronts-rain-havoc-on-state-in-may
Erdman, J, 2019: "Stretch of Tornadoes, Severe Weather Since Late April One of Most Prolific in 8 Years." The Weather Channel, https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2019-05-28-severe-weather-tornado-streak-may-2019
Livingston, I, 2019: "Montana just endured one of the nation’s most exceptional cold spells on record." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/03/11/some-nations-most-exceptional-cold-record-has-finally-left-montana/
Samenow, J, 2019: "Polar vortex intrusion: ‘Dangerous’ and ‘brutal’ cold aimed at Great Lakes by Tuesday." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/26/polar-vortex-intrusion-dangerous-brutal-cold-aimed-great-lakes-by-tuesday/
- 2018 -
Dolce, C, 2018: "U.S. Likely to Finish 2018 With Its Fewest Severe Weather Watches in More Than a Decade." The Weather Channel, https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2018-11-29-severe-thunderstorm-tornado-watches-11-year-low-2018
Samenow, J, 2018: "Hurricane Michael forecast updates: Historic storm to arrive in Carolinas by morning, and may unleash flooding rainfall." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/10/hurricane-michael-could-become-strongest-record-strike-florida-panhandle-wednesday/
Shepherd, M, 2018: "3 Reasons Meteorologists Are Talking About Hurricane Florence." Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/09/06/3-reasons-meteorologists-are-talking-about-hurricane-florence/
Lam, L, 2018: "Based on Hurricane Florence's Location, We Didn't Expect It to Get So Strong So Soon." The Weather Channel, https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-06-hurricane-florence-rapid-intensification-rare-major-hurricane/
Kaufman, M, 2018: "How Hurricane Florence overcame big odds to target the East Coast." Mashable, https://mashable.com/article/hurricane-florence-improbable-storm/
Ricci, K, 2018: "Florence Is Poised To Become The East Coast’s Strongest Hurricane In Decades." UPROXX, https://uproxx.com/news/hurricane-florence-east-coast/
Porter, G, 2018: "Florence forecast to become ‘dangerous’ hurricane; chance of East Coast landfall is increasing." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/09/08/florence-likely-to-become-a-major-hurricane-with-increasing-chance-of-u-s-east-coast-landfall/
Lam, L, 2018: "Only 63 Tornado Watches Have Been Issued So Far in 2018, the Fewest in More Than 12 Years." The Weather Channel, https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-07-10-fewest-tornado-watches-2018-last-10-years/
Shepherd, M, 2018: "How Rare Are May Hurricanes? Is There One Brewing For Memorial Day Weekend?" Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/05/22/how-rare-are-may-hurricanes-is-one-brewing-for-memorial-day-weekend/
Freedman, A, 2018: "'Bomb cyclone' ingredients: Sharp temperature contrasts plus jet stream energy." Mashable, https://mashable.com/2018/01/04/how-bomb-cyclone-intensified-so-quickly/
Samenow, J, 2018: "Historic 'bomb cyclone' unleashes blizzard conditions from coastal Virginia to New England. Frigid air to follow." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/04/historic-bomb-cyclone-unleashes-blizzard-conditions-from-coastal-virginia-to-new-england-frigid-air-to-follow/
- 2017 -
Willingham, AJ and Miller, B, 2017: "For Ophelia, the 'what' isn't remarkable, it's the 'where'." CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/16/world/ophelia-ireland-uk-photos-videos-trnd/
Samenow, J, 2017: "Former Hurricane Ophelia rocks Ireland with 100-mph wind gusts." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/10/16/former-hurricane-ophelia-rocks-ireland-with-100-mph-wind-gusts/
Samenow, J, 2017: "Ireland lashed by remnants of Ophelia, the strongest eastern Atlantic hurricane on record." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/10/15/ophelia-strongest-eastern-atlantic-hurricane-on-record-roars-toward-ireland/
Miller, B, 2017: "New tropical depression poses weekend threat to Gulf Coast." CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/04/us/possible-tropical-storm-nate/
Samenow, J, 2017: "Forecasts for Harvey were excellent but show where predictions can improve." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/28/forecasts-for-harvey-were-excellent-but-show-where-predictions-can-improve/
Thompson, A, 2017: "These Tweets Show Just How Nuts Harvey's Rains and Floods Are."
Live Science, https://www.livescience.com/60251-tweets-show-how-crazy-harvey-floods-are.html
Cappucci, M, 2017: "September is the most energetic month for hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/26/september-is-the-most-energetic-month-for-hurricanes-ever-recorded-in-the-atlantic/
- 2016 -
Samenow, J, 2016: "Claim that jet stream crossing equator is ‘climate emergency’ is utter nonsense." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/30/claim-that-jet-stream-crossing-equator-is-climate-emergency-is-utter-nonsense/
- 2015 -
Holthaus, E, 2015: "Boston’s astounding month of snow a 1-in-26,315 year occurrence." Washington Post, Capital Weather Gang, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/25/bostons-astounding-month-of-snow-a-1-in-26315-year-occurrence/
Fisher, E, 2015: "Finishing Out The Coldest Month Ever Recorded in New England." CBS Boston, https://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/24/finishing-out-the-coldest-month-ever-recorded-in-new-england/